Reducing Error in Ebola Projections
Using data from the early weeks of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, the researcher’s model produces much more accurate forecasts of the number of potential cases, and where the disease would spread, than models used by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control at the time.
Hover or click on a location to see how the new model’s adjustments for behavioral changes and distance from outbreaks — two factors not included in CDC models — affected the overall error rate from the researcher’s base model in each location.
Note: Behavior changes refers to how people react, such as limiting travel, as an outbreak spreads. The distance factor generally assumes that regions closest to an outbreak have the highest likelihood of contracting disease.
Source: US Centers for Disease Control
Data visualization by: Gail Zuniga